As regular readers know, I sometimes like to make arguments for positions I don’t hold, just to test my viewpoint. Today I will argue that President George W. Bush will be regarded by historians as among the best presidents ever, and might get a place on Mt. Rushmore.
Reiterating: This is not my view.
To judge the greatness of a president, you are allowed to consider only his top priorities. For example, no one remembers Abe Lincoln’s position on, well, anything except the Cvil War. For the purposes of choosing a greatest president, you can round up all the little issues and toss them away.
For example, while critics might say restricting government funding for stem cell research is boneheaded, history has its own way of evaluating things. If no stem cell breakthrough based on human embryos ever happens, despite all the private funding, President Bush’s position will seem irrelevant to history. If a privately funded research group makes a breakthrough, it will also make Bush’s opposition of public funding seem irrelevant. People might argue that public funding would have made it happen faster, but that issue will seem trivial over time.
The same can be said of all the smaller disagreements President Bush’s critics have with him. In a hundred years, they will not be part of what historians use to judge him. So let’s look at the big stuff.
President Bush famously promised to do something about the Axis of Evil: Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. That was a top priority. How’s he doing so far?
Iraq didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction, but by restricting inspectors, it acted as if it did. That is almost as dangerous as having a nuclear weapon because it causes your neighbor (Iran) to build its own nukes, just to be safe. It turns out they were doing just that.
Recently we learned that Iran stopped its nuclear bomb program in 2003. That’s about the same time the U.S. was disemboweling its next door neighbor based on the suspicion of having a nuclear weapons program. Iran probably noticed. History will credit President Bush for removing the threat of nuclear war from the Middle East.
North Korea has also discontinued its nuke program, thanks in part, history might acknowledge, because when the U.S. invaded Iraq, it went after the leadership first, including sons. That’s the sort of thing that gets your attention if you are a dictator. As with Reagan’s Star Wars defense plan, the U.S. under President Bush seemed crazy enough to attack North Korea. The threat was entirely credible. That, plus China’s pressure, neutralized North Korea.
Meanwhile, Libya surrendered its nuclear ambitions without even being asked. Credit President Bush for that one too.
Terrorism was a priority during the Bush administration. History won’t blame him for the first attack on 9/11, but it certainly might credit him for the fact no other attacks happened during his two terms. That’s a perfect record on homeland security.
Also, as I have argued before, the war in Iraq might turn out to accidentally be the death of Al-Qaeda. By showing a willingness to attack Muslims, any goodwill the organization had gained by attacking the United States began to erode. Iraq became flypaper for terrorists. They came in to Iraq, pissed off the locals, and the locals exterminated them in large numbers. While the number of wannabe terrorists might have increased, you only have to kill the smart ones near the top several times before management is comprised of mostly the dumb ones by default. History might record that Iraq was the turning point in the war on terror. Al-Qaeda bet everything on Iraq, and lost. President Bush did indeed “fight them there so we don’t have to fight them here.” While it didn’t happen exactly the way he envisioned it, history might credit him for moving the fight and winning it.
Then there’s global warming. Assuming it’s real, the only solution is massive improvements in alternative energy. Thanks to oil being over $100 a barrel, every time you read the news another huge corporation is installing solar panels in the desert, or synthesizing algae for biofuels, or harnessing the wind. President Bush is a free market guy, and the free market seems to be stepping up. Success in these alternative energy movements is not assured, but it seems likely, given all the venture capital flowing in that direction. History will record that President Bush and his free market views saved the world from global warming.
The economy isn’t great, but it isn’t bad enough to detract from President Bush’s place in history. The same is true for crime, health, pollution, education, and any number of problems that won’t factor into his legacy one way or the other.
What do you think?