Whenever I write about foreign policy, religion, or science, the criticisms I get most often are along the lines of “Leave it to the experts. You don’t know anything about foreign policy/religion/science.” I always chuckle inside when I read that sort of comment.
First, it must be noted that I have no way of knowing when I’m right or wrong. Experience tells me that I feel the same level of confidence either way. If I started making a list of all the times I was sure I was right, only to later find out I was wrong, we would both die of old age waiting for me to finish the list. At least I think we would. I could be wrong about that too.
But what makes YOU so sure I’m wrong on any given topic? It seems that for you to be sure I’m wrong, about anything, eight tests would have to be passed:
1. You have never been sure you were right and later found out you were wrong.
2. You have deep expertise in all fields relevant to the topic.
3. There are no experts disagreeing with you.
4. You can distinguish, via ESP, my actual opinions from my monkey dancing inducements.
5. Unlike all other humans, you are immune from cognitive dissonance or bias.
6. You know what you know, and also everything you DON’T know.
7. You have sufficient reading comprehension to understand my point.
8. Your powers of perception and logic are infallible.
I certainly understand when people disagree with my alleged opinions. We all have different knowledge and biases, so it follows that opinions would vary even if our brains were equally rational, which they aren’t. And I understand being confident in one’s own opinion. But it does not follow that that I am wrong, as far as you can tell.
Do any of you think I’m an idiot about foreign policy or science or religion, and you can pass the eight tests?