This is a Sunday post, where only the people who like to “think about stuff” are encouraged to read further. If you only enjoy the funny ones, please skip the Sunday posts.
Today’s thought experiment is about America pulling out of Iraq. As usual, I’ll lay out an argument that’s based on my ignorance and ethnocentric world view and you can tell me where it’s wrong.
I’ll begin by describing a specific method for America to pull out of Iraq, so you have something to compare to the option of staying the course. The President could…
1. Announce the pullout on the same day that Saddam Hussein (presumably) gets executed.
2. Give no timetable for COMPLETION of the pullout. Make the timing a tactical decision for your generals. Admit that it could take years to withdraw smartly.
3. Announce that America has given Iraq the OPPORTUNITY for democracy, and that is the most that any country can do for another.
4. Make it clear to the Sunni minority that when America leaves, the Shiite majority will be free to handle things their own way.
5. Apologize to the Iraqi people for mistakes made and lives lost.
Now let’s look at what happens if America pulls out of Iraq. According to the experts, it’s bad:
1. Civil war in Iraq will get even worse.
2. Iran will gain too much influence over southern Iraq and its oil.
3. America will be letting down its allies in the fledgling Iraqi democracy.
4. Terrorists will have achieved a propaganda victory.
5. Terrorists will use Iraq as a base camp.
On the plus side, while America hasn’t accomplished its stated goals, it did accomplish a few notable things:
1. America demonstrated to the world that it’s deadly serious about WMD and terrorism even if its targeting leaves much to be desired.
2. America demonstrated its military power, just in case anyone wondered if it was all hype.
3. America presumably developed and perfected many terror-fighting and conventional war capabilities because of the war.
4. Saddam Hussein and his family and many cronies have been captured and killed, demonstrating that regime change is always an American option, even at high cost.
5. America vastly increased its knowledge and contacts in a part of the world that is central to terrorism. Those assets could be hugely important in ways that are hard to predict.
I’m not including in my analysis the bad reputation that America gained in the Iraqi war because that is what the economists call a sunk cost. It already happened and it can’t be undone. The same is true for turning Iraq into a terrorist recruiting platform. That has happened and will continue to happen even if Iraq develops some sort of functioning democracy.
I am also excluding from the accomplishments Libya’s decision to give up its nuclear ambitions. Some pundits say the Iraqi war scared them into doing it. But after reading The One Percent Doctrine by Ron Suskind, I doubt that is the case. Libya had its own reasons. Read his book if you want details.
Now the analysis.
First let’s look at the notion that if America leaves Iraq, the civil war will get worse and the hope of democracy will be snuffed out. That’s what many if not most experts believe. But consider how many times experts have been wrong about Iraq. We now know that Iraq had no WMD, no ties to al-Qaeda, and America was not greeted as liberators – just to name a few bad predictions. In fact, the only safe prediction about Iraq is that no one can predict how it will go.
One possibility is that after America pulls out, the Shiite majority will have no constraints on how they deal with the insurgents. The moderate Sunnis will be faced with the option of supporting an imperfect democracy (before America is completely gone) or being exterminated by the majority Shiites who consider it the only way to get all of the Sunni insurgents.
And realistically, how much is the American presence dampening civil war in Iraq now? The death squads are already operating with impunity. I find it hard to believe that even one Iraqi has ever restrained himself from killing another because American troops were at a base 20 miles away.
As for Iran dominating southern Iraq after America pulls out, I have to wonder how bad that really is. Al-Qaeda hate Shiites almost as much as they hate Americans. Iran is mostly Shiite, so I can’t see Iran tolerating al-Qaeda training camps. Iran backs Hezbollah, and those guys don’t need Iraq.
As far as Iran controlling Iraqi oil, I wonder how much I should worry about that. The Iraqi oil supply is currently a mess. Would Iranian influence make it somehow worse? It seems to me that there is at least an equal chance that stability would improve oil production and help stabilize the market. Who can predict that sort of thing? As long as the world wants oil, whoever controls it will sell it at market prices.
The other alleged costs for leaving Iraq involve things that are going to happen no matter what. Realistically, democracy in Iraq will have little impact on the number of terrorist training camps because a democratic government will never control all of Iraq. There are simply too many places to hide.
I also wonder how much the American presence is really helping its allies in the fledgling Iraqi government. It seems to me that if any run-of-the-mill warlord can protect himself from getting killed in that area of the world, the core of the Iraqi government could protect itself too. And America with its Arab allies could offer relocation assistance to those who desperately wanted to get out for their physical safety. If money and weapons are what America’s Iraqi allies need, those can be supplied.
No matter what America does in Iraq, the terrorists will still have a propaganda victory. Al-Qaeda wins in propaganda if America stays and creates a puppet infidel regime, or if America leaves apparently defeated. So that can’t factor into the decision.
When faced with decisions of this complexity, I have a rule that I fall back on. I discount the unquantifiable and unpredictable parts and focus on the few factors that are clear and known. In the case of Iraq, the only thing everyone knows for sure is that Americans are being killed and will continue to be killed unless the troops withdraw. Every other factor is either thoroughly unpredictable or will happen regardless of what America chooses to do.
Personally, I would consider the war in Iraq a success for America if the troops were withdrawn now, even if the Iraqi democracy collapsed. While this sounds like a joke, I am serious when I say it’s highly useful to find out for sure where the WMD are NOT. Unfortunately, this costly war was the only way to know for sure. You could argue that it wasn’t worth the price to find out, but you can’t say it isn’t better to be sure.
Second, my guess is that America has improved its terrorist fighting knowledge and skills considerably as a direct result of things learned in this war. That is the sort of indirect benefit that can end up dwarfing all of the costs. Every modern war has created that sort of benefit. This one should be no exception. It could take decades before those benefits are clear.
I reiterate that the argument above is riddled with ignorance because I get my information from the media. That’s the point of this exercise. It’s your job to fill in the gaps and critique the reasoning. Sometimes the best way to get to a good opinion is by fixing a bad one that’s clearly stated.