Battle of the Hats

When Donald Trump ran for president he put his clear, simple message on the front of bright red hats. The message was perfect. The choice of a hat instead of a t-shirt or other garment was perfect. The color red was perfect for his message – bold, sexy, and important….

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A Look Back at My Trump Predictions

Many of you asked me to provide a quick index to my Trump-only blog posts. I did that for you here in a Whencast. Feel free to share on social media or embed in your own blog. My updates to this will flow automatically to wherever it is shared. To…

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Listen to Me on The Harvard Lunch Club Podcast

I’m putting together the studio equipment I need to do my own podcasting and livestreaming. But in the meantime you can hear me on the Harvard Lunch Club podcast [no longer available]. Several people have asked why I’m trying to do my own engineering for my podcasting studio. I could hire…

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Could a Climate Science Expert Change Your Opinion?

It seems to me that the big problem with the climate change debate is that no one would recognize a good argument if they saw one. We only think we have the ability to recognize a good argument. What actually happens is that cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias generally keep a wall…

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The Master Persuader Scrambles the Frame

What was Trump’s biggest persuasion problem in the election?  Answer: His opponents did a great job of framing him as some kind of Hitler. Do a Google search on Trump and Hitler and you get an avalanche of comparisons.  It was sticky persuasion, and it still hangs over the country like…

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How To Know Your Product Will Succeed

People often ask me if it is possible to use the tools of persuasion to predict which types of products or businesses will succeed. I’ll tell you a trick for doing just that. But keep in mind that this is NOT backed by any studies or science as far as…

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Is The Onion Advising Democrats Now?

Worst. Persuasion. Ever. Someone needs to do an intervention. This is officially embarrassing. Coincidentally, a good way show an audience the changes in healthcare coverage and expenses over time is my startup, WhenHub.com [no longer available]. It’s the best way to create and share visualizations of events over time. If someone…

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How About an American Expense-lowering Investment Fund?

I’ve been saying in this blog for some time that we can’t tax and budget our way to a better future. We need to work on dramatically lowering the average cost of a high-quality lifestyle. Technology can make that happen if the right startups are nurtured. Take for example this project [no…

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Creating Economic Assets out of Nothing

One of the magical things about economics is that you can create an economic asset out of nothing but persuasion. For example, if you persuade people to be more optimistic about the economy, people invest more money, buy more products, create more jobs, and generally manifest the better economy from…

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What if Climate Change Causes more CO2?

Let me start this post by restating that I agree with the scientific consensus on climate change. I’m not a scientist and I have no tools to evaluate the credibility of those who are. As far as I can tell, the arguments on both sides are totally credible. I can’t…

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The Master Persuader Filter and Bernie’s Ad

Back in January of 2016 I said this about Bernie Sanders’ new campaign ad: Posted January 21st, 2016 @ 12:01pm in #Trump #bernie2016 [no longer available] As I have taught you, persuasion can be ranked like this: 1. Identity (best) 2. Analogy (okay) 3. Reason (useless) Bernie Sanders had been operating in the…

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Best Arguments For and Against Climate Model Credibility

Below are competing links on the credibility of climate change models. One makes the case that the models do a good job. The other makes a case that the models are not credible. See which one you find more persuasive. As I have been saying all along, I can’t tell…

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The Illusion of Knowledge

Yesterday I kicked the hornet’s nest by suggesting that no scientist really believes that complicated models with lots of variables can reliably predict the future. This is a subset of my larger point that no non-scientist can evaluate the claims of climate science because BOTH sides look 100% convincing to the under-informed. …

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The Climate Science Challenge

I keep hearing people say that 97% of climate scientists are on the same side of the issue. Critics point out that the number is inflated, but we don’t know by how much. Persuasion-wise, the “first offer” of 97% is so close to 100% that our minds assume the real number…

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The Kristina Talent Stack

Over the past eighteen months or so my girlfriend Kristina Basham grew her Instagram following from zero to 2.5 million followers. She adds about 10,000 new followers per day. That’s ten thousand new followers per day. You might think this kind of accomplishment is easy for her because of her extraordinary attractiveness. Sure,…

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