Lie Detection and Scandals

When Clinton’s surrogates respond to questions about Wikileaks by saying the Russians are behind it, that’s an acknowledgment of guilt. Guilty people almost always question the source of the information first. Innocent people start with a clear denial, or sometimes confusion as to why the question is being asked. Some guilty people…

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Assume Half of What You Hear About the Candidates is True

This is a fun election. Trump and Clinton have provided us with one juicy rumor/scandal after another. But how do you know which rumors are true? I have taught you in this blog that even smart people are routinely fooled by confirmation bias. You think you can use your “common sense” to…

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The Era of Women

If the latest groping/kissing allegations against Trump hold up – and I assume they will, based on quantity if not credibility – it won’t matter what Wikileaks says about Clinton. She will win easily. If Clinton wins, you’ll wonder if this invalidates the Master Persuader Hypothesis. The short answer is no, because…

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Scandal Poker – Trump Vs. Clinton

This is the most scandalicious election of all time. I’m losing track of all the allegations and rumors. As a public service, I will use the persuasion filter plus some pattern recognition to give you my subjective impression of the odds of each rumor being true. I will do this in the…

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Quick Debate Reactions from Switzerland

I just watched the debate on replay. Trump won bigly. This one wasn’t close. And keep in mind that I called Clinton the winner of the first debate, and I now endorse Gary Johnson, primarily to avoid being called an alleged enabler of alleged sex abusers and their alleged enablers….

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Why I Endorse Gary Johnson (this week)

I don’t know how to write this post without unintentionally disrespecting the real victims of abuse in any form. I apologize in advance if it comes off that way. But it’s part of the national conversation now, and unavoidable. The best I can do is focus on how voters perceive…

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Why Does This Happen on My Vacation? (The Trump Tapes)

By now you know about the Access Hollywood recording in which Donald Trump said bad things eleven years ago. Many of my readers asked me to weigh in. One of the requests came from anti-Trump GOP elite person Erick Erickson. (Middle name Erick, I assume.) This was his polite request and my…

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Presidential Temperament

Do you remember the time someone insulted Donald Trump and then Trump punched him in the nose? Neither do I. Because nothing like that has ever happened. Instead, people attack Donald Trump with words (often) and he attacks them back with words. See if the following pattern looks familiar: 1….

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The Week I Became a Target

This weekend I got “shadowbanned” on Twitter. It lasted until my followers noticed and protested. Shadowbanning prevents my followers from seeing my tweets and replies, but in a way that is not obvious until you do some digging. Why did I get shadowbanned? Beats me. But it was probably because I…

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The Wall Around ISIS

Turkey is almost finished building its wall to keep out Syrian refugees. That seals off the ISIS Caliphate’s Northern border. See this map to refresh your memory on the geography. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is building a “bad-ass” wall along its entire border with Iraq. Jordan has plans for its own wall, for the same reason. And we can…

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I Score the First Debate

Trump and Clinton debated each other for the first time last night. Here’s how I score the night. Clinton won on points. She had more command of the details and the cleaner answers. Trump did a lot of interrupting and he was defensive. If this were a college debate competition,…

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Why I Switched My Endorsement from Clinton to Trump

As most of you know, I had been endorsing Hillary Clinton for president, for my personal safety, because I live in California. It isn’t safe to be a Trump supporter where I live. And it’s bad for business too. But recently I switched my endorsement to Trump, and I owe…

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Blowing Your Mind — as Promised

About a year ago I told you that Donald Trump would change far more than politics. I predicted that he would change your understanding of the human condition and your role in reality. Back then, I couldn’t explain what I meant. You didn’t have the mental framework to hold this…

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How to Know an Election is Over

In the 2D world in which most people live, Clinton and Trump are polling about evenly, and either one could win. The 2D world is all about facts and policies and common sense. In other words – all the stuff we think we care about but really don’t.  In the 3D world…

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Assessing the Risk of Trump

For over a year now I have been blogging about Trump’s talent for persuasion, and that gives people the impression that I prefer him as my president. That is not the case. I’ll tell you why at the end of this post. The best choice for president depends on the…

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