The following comment from Blacklander was so interesting that I am including it as a post, with permission, for those of you too lazy to read hundreds of comments looking for the nugget.
I think it will be funny to watch people argue whether this educated, Arab, Muslim living in Egypt understands anything about his own culture and the region.
— beginning of comment from Blacklander —
When you’re trying to predict the outcome of something, there are always factors that you just don’t see. It’s inevitable. Being an Arab Muslim, there are some factors that I notice in my day to day life:
1- Subgroups are willing to unite with one another. West Arab countries with one another, gulf countries, and Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan remain in the “playing solo” section. Is it a coincidence that countries neighbouring Israel are the least likely to merge with other Arab countries?
2- Pan-Arabism died in 1970 with Nasser, but it’s on the uptrend again. It’s not that we view ourselves as one, it’s that the west is viewing us as one. It’s always stupid to assume ur alone in a fight when the other party is considering you part of a group.
3- Arab culture is actually unified already. Thanks to communications providing so much exchanging of ideas. We’re more or less tuned to the same concept “How do we collectively rank up with other world powers”.
4- In most Arab countries, -except Saudi Arabia, Lybia, and Yemen probably- and of course occupied Iraq, people already have a westernized take on life. Capitalism, pragmatism, calculating everything in cost-effect terms. We’re more practical and we’re getting better everyday just because we feel so threatened. We feel it’s literally a matter of life and death to be as far away as possible from “vulnerable and defenseless”
Why am I saying all that?
It seems to me that a unified Arab/Muslim country, or caliphate as you boys like to call it , is likely if the west tries to actively stop it. Whenever we hear about a clash between Sunnis and Shi’is or Kurds and Arabs or whatever, we -this generation- probe for a US/Western hand pulling a string couple of years earlier starting the chain reaction.
Mary Robinson confirming to Saddam that the US is impartial to any Arab-Arab conflict // Saddam getting worked up and moves into Kuwait /// U.S starts a decade long scheme to take over Iraq// That’s one example we young Arabs always think of. We can always get along with people, but we should never trust western countries’ motivations. We know for a fact that it’s down to our interest vs. theirs. The west needs us divided, scattered, and unable to control our resources till you bleed us dry , then go for your own reserves while we strive in vain to find alternatives.
The neocon western approach means inevitable loss to us. It means long term starvation.
Unlike our fathers, this generation is different. We’ve been around, and we know how to make things right. It’s just a matter of time. We will be ruling our countries in a couple of decades, with cultural open-mindedness and pragmatic tolerance unprecedented in our respective countries. We will do it, and we will do it right, it will be as easy to think of a united Arab state as the EU now.
Unless of course the west keeps charging the average ppl with blind hate and making it perfectly plausible that a hard-liner would sound like a saviour. If not, then we will be our own saviours, in a way that threatens no one, but allows no one to threaten us.
That’s my prediction.
Western intervention x Arab development x Lingering clashes = % of world war III.
The only thing the west could do that won’t make things more messed up is pulling out their arms and sending in something different. Education, culture, information exchange. That’s the only safe way to change people, give them means and choice to change themselves. Bad ideas sort themselves out when exposed to good ideas.
Meanwhile, the west keeps making bad ideas feel like the only way out, frustrated popluation is too busy hating the western policies and not focusing on their own governments, people keep on dying for securing oil flow. It’s a 50 50 to me until these bloody wars stop.