Many of you took issue with my hunch that there is no other intelligent humanoid life in the universe. The two keywords in my opinion were hunch and humanoid. I wouldn’t rule out lizard-things that remember where they live, for example. Humanoids that do crossword puzzles are less likely.
One of the interesting things about getting older (or experienced as I like to call it) is that you can detect a problem before you know why. Have you been in a situation where someone says “Let’s do it this way” and you get an immediate little stomach ache because you know damned well that it won’t work? And then someone asks why you think it’s a bad plan and you really can’t explain it. All you know is that the last ten plans that sounded kind of like this plan all fell apart.
Scientists have done calculations showing that there are probably lots of planets with life. The universe is so large that even the amazingly unlikely sequence of events that theoretically caused our existence must have happened plenty of other times too. And I guess it follows that if there is enough life out there, some of it is bound to be smart.
To believe that, I’d have to believe that some goober with Excel actually calculated the probability of intelligent life and got an answer that was within a hundred-trillion percent of being accurate. It’s possible I suppose. But compare it to the other possibility:
1. People want to believe there is intelligent life out there.
2. The media loves that kind of crap.
3. A good way to get attention is to claim you proved aliens exist.
If you believe that scientists can really calculate the odds of intelligent life, you might be, um…young. I think there’s at least a 50% chance that scientists have grossly overestimated the chances. Again, it’s just a hunch. To put it in earthier terms, calculating the odds of life on other planets sounds like complete bullshit to me.