I wonder if there is such a thing as natural allies, in terms of countries.
I remember when the Soviet Union was whole, and the cold war was going strong, I predicted that someday the United States and Russia would be allies. We’re not exactly there, but we’re closing the gap.
I based that prediction on the fact that some countries are natural allies, and eventually they realize it. For example, when two superpowers don’t share a border, and aren’t fighting for the same natural resources, and would benefit from trade, and have an interest in maintaining the world order, they are natural allies.
This theory is half-baked, I admit. I don’t have the historical knowledge to fill it out. Maybe you can help.
The idea is to come up with a set of criteria that reliably predicts whether two countries are natural allies. Once identified, those countries’ leaders have an argument for their own citizens as to why they should cease acting like enemies toward the other. This is important because two countries that have been at each other for decades will require their leaders to talk the citizens out of their animosity. The leaders will need something that looks like a grand philosophical reason. That’s what the theory of natural allies is.
The criteria for two countries being natural allies might look like this:
1. Do not share a border.
2. Are not trying to control the same limited natural resources.
3. Have significant trade potential.
4. Neither has a political philosophy that promotes conquest.
5. Both have an interest in a stable world order.
The beauty of this list is in what you choose to leave off. For example, it ignores religious differences, disputes with third party allies, nuclear ambitions, arming terrorists, and lots of things you would think should be addressed. NOT addressing them is the point. Let me explain.
Take Iran and the United States, for example. I would argue that the two countries meet the criteria for being natural allies. Despite all the bad history and differences, both countries have more to gain from cooperation than dispute. The problem is that a leader in either country could not remain in power if he or she promoted suddenly being nice to the other. The citizens wouldn’t allow it.
That’s where the theory of natural allies comes in. It’s a side door. You could hold a conference to address the theory of natural allies, as opposed to a conference to address the problems between two countries. Once both countries agree they are natural allies, which is an easier sell to their citizens than “let’s be friends,” the path is set to work toward more mutual interest.
Arguably, it’s nothing but a label. But we know that people’s brains are hugely influenced by labels. If your labels are The Great Satan and Axis of Evil, there isn’t much room for agreement. But if you agree that you are natural allies, based on the five criteria that are fairly objective in nature, you can get past the label problem.
I thought I’d try creating world peace one more time before the end of this year.